Bayesian online regime monitoring

Model complexity should earn its place through better decisions, not novelty. This article explores bayesian online regime monitoring and the baselines needed to establish its incremental value.

Practitioner lens

Separate prediction from action in bayesian online regime monitoring: identify what is estimated, what is optimized and which business rules must remain binding regardless of model confidence.

First experiment

Test the method at the level where the decision is executed, then inspect how aggregation changes results.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.