Rare-event simulation for resilience

A deployable approach must explain what it optimizes, what it leaves uncertain and when it should defer. Those questions guide this brief on rare-event simulation for resilience.

Practitioner lens

A model for rare-event simulation for resilience should state its objective and feasible set explicitly. Hidden penalty weights or relaxed constraints can make an impressive result operationally impossible.

First experiment

Test the method at the level where the decision is executed, then inspect how aggregation changes results.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.