Calibration versus sharpness

The central test for calibration versus sharpness is whether it generalizes across time and operating conditions. Use rolling evaluation and compare against a simple, defensible baseline.

Practitioner lens

Forecast distributions from calibration versus sharpness become actionable when passed into inventory, sourcing or capacity models. Preserving uncertainty is often more useful than collapsing it too early.

First experiment

Monitor feature drift, residual structure and changing error by segment after deployment.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.