Hierarchical forecast reconciliation

Advanced forecasting should be judged by horizon, segment and decision value—not one aggregate score. This note examines hierarchical forecast reconciliation with that evaluation discipline.

Practitioner lens

When testing hierarchical forecast reconciliation, compare point accuracy with decision loss. The forecast that minimizes an average error may not minimize stockout, obsolescence or capacity costs.

First experiment

Monitor feature drift, residual structure and changing error by segment after deployment.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.