Zero-inflated demand distributions

Forecast uncertainty needs to be measured and carried into downstream decisions. This technical note frames zero-inflated demand distributions as part of that full planning chain.

Practitioner lens

For zero-inflated demand distributions, validation must respect the information set available at each forecast origin. Features published after the decision date create leakage and overstate likely performance.

First experiment

Propagate predictive distributions into the downstream inventory or capacity decision where possible.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.