Adaptive model selection by segment

The central test for adaptive model selection by segment is whether it generalizes across time and operating conditions. Use rolling evaluation and compare against a simple, defensible baseline.

Practitioner lens

For adaptive model selection by segment, validation must respect the information set available at each forecast origin. Features published after the decision date create leakage and overstate likely performance.

First experiment

Check calibration and decision impact separately; sharp intervals are useful only when they cover at the promised rate.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.