Global versus local forecasting models

The central test for global versus local forecasting models is whether it generalizes across time and operating conditions. Use rolling evaluation and compare against a simple, defensible baseline.

Practitioner lens

When testing global versus local forecasting models, compare point accuracy with decision loss. The forecast that minimizes an average error may not minimize stockout, obsolescence or capacity costs.

First experiment

Use rolling-origin backtests, horizon-specific losses and interval coverage; keep feature availability time-correct.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.