Causal impact of promotions

Advanced methods need monitoring as well as training. This short read considers causal impact of promotions and how to detect when yesterday’s fit no longer holds.

Practitioner lens

For causal impact of promotions, validation must respect the information set available at each forecast origin. Features published after the decision date create leakage and overstate likely performance.

First experiment

Propagate predictive distributions into the downstream inventory or capacity decision where possible.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.