Conformal intervals for time series

Advanced methods need monitoring as well as training. This short read considers conformal intervals for time series and how to detect when yesterday’s fit no longer holds.

Practitioner lens

When testing conformal intervals for time series, compare point accuracy with decision loss. The forecast that minimizes an average error may not minimize stockout, obsolescence or capacity costs.

First experiment

Compare with naive and current-production baselines, then test sensitivity across product and lifecycle cohorts.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.