Joint demand and lead-time uncertainty

Advanced forecasting should be judged by horizon, segment and decision value—not one aggregate score. This note examines joint demand and lead-time uncertainty with that evaluation discipline.

Practitioner lens

Check how joint demand and lead-time uncertainty behaves under regime changes and sparse data. A method should be monitored for degradation and have a practical fallback when assumptions stop holding.

First experiment

Check calibration and decision impact separately; sharp intervals are useful only when they cover at the promised rate.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.