Demand history versus demand signal

Before choosing a model, define the demand being estimated and the action it informs. This guide places demand history versus demand signal in that end-to-end context.

Practitioner lens

A clear explanation of demand history versus demand signal starts with a time plot and a definition of demand. Visual checks often reveal lifecycle or data patterns before any method is selected.

First experiment

Draw the series before fitting a model; mark missing periods, stockouts, promotions and calendar changes.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.