Moving-average forecasts in practice

Forecast measures make sense only when their assumptions are visible. This article unpacks moving-average forecasts in practice and the common interpretation trap to avoid.

Practitioner lens

Before applying moving-average forecasts in practice, state the unit, time bucket, planning level and horizon. Forecasts with different definitions are not comparable, even when their charts look similar.

First experiment

Record the forecast, override and outcome separately so the next review can distinguish model from judgment.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.