Seasonal-naive forecasting

Before choosing a model, define the demand being estimated and the action it informs. This guide places seasonal-naive forecasting in that end-to-end context.

Practitioner lens

Treat judgment around seasonal-naive forecasting as a measurable input. Store the statistical forecast, human adjustment and eventual outcome separately so their contributions can be reviewed.

First experiment

Choose a horizon and aggregation level that match the decision, then evaluate a simple baseline first.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.