Holiday calendars for planners

Forecast measures make sense only when their assumptions are visible. This article unpacks holiday calendars for planners and the common interpretation trap to avoid.

Practitioner lens

Keep the decision in view when using holiday calendars for planners. A forecast for replenishment, capacity and annual budgeting may need different horizons and different levels of aggregation.

First experiment

Keep a time-based holdout. Do not shuffle observations when future periods must be predicted from the past.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.