Returns and net demand definitions

Simple forecasting methods remain useful when their fit and limits are understood. This primer explains returns and net demand definitions with a planner’s workflow in mind.

Practitioner lens

Use a simple baseline when learning returns and net demand definitions. It makes model value visible and can expose a data issue that would otherwise be mistaken for algorithmic improvement.

First experiment

Keep a time-based holdout. Do not shuffle observations when future periods must be predicted from the past.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.