Croston method intuition

A forecast is not a promise; it is an input to a choice. This primer uses croston method intuition to make that distinction concrete.

Practitioner lens

Before applying croston method intuition, state the unit, time bucket, planning level and horizon. Forecasts with different definitions are not comparable, even when their charts look similar.

First experiment

Keep a time-based holdout. Do not shuffle observations when future periods must be predicted from the past.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.