Forecast bias in plain language

Before choosing a model, define the demand being estimated and the action it informs. This guide places forecast bias in plain language in that end-to-end context.

Practitioner lens

Keep the decision in view when using forecast bias in plain language. A forecast for replenishment, capacity and annual budgeting may need different horizons and different levels of aggregation.

First experiment

Review error by horizon and segment; an average can conceal a severe miss on a critical item.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.