Forecast overrides and judgment

Forecast measures make sense only when their assumptions are visible. This article unpacks forecast overrides and judgment and the common interpretation trap to avoid.

Practitioner lens

A clear explanation of forecast overrides and judgment starts with a time plot and a definition of demand. Visual checks often reveal lifecycle or data patterns before any method is selected.

First experiment

Choose a horizon and aggregation level that match the decision, then evaluate a simple baseline first.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.