Statistical versus manual forecast

Forecasting is a structured estimate for a defined decision, horizon and level of detail. This guide introduces statistical versus manual forecast and shows where it fits in a practical planning cycle.

Practitioner lens

Keep the decision in view when using statistical versus manual forecast. A forecast for replenishment, capacity and annual budgeting may need different horizons and different levels of aggregation.

First experiment

Choose a horizon and aggregation level that match the decision, then evaluate a simple baseline first.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.