Forecast hierarchy reconciliation

A useful forecast starts with a clear question and a trustworthy history. This short lesson explains forecast hierarchy reconciliation in terms a planner can apply.

Practitioner lens

Before applying forecast hierarchy reconciliation, state the unit, time bucket, planning level and horizon. Forecasts with different definitions are not comparable, even when their charts look similar.

First experiment

Keep a time-based holdout. Do not shuffle observations when future periods must be predicted from the past.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.