Compound Poisson demand models

Advanced forecasting should be judged by horizon, segment and decision value—not one aggregate score. This note examines compound poisson demand models with that evaluation discipline.

Practitioner lens

Check how compound poisson demand models behaves under regime changes and sparse data. A method should be monitored for degradation and have a practical fallback when assumptions stop holding.

First experiment

Propagate predictive distributions into the downstream inventory or capacity decision where possible.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.