Choosing the right forecast level

Forecast measures make sense only when their assumptions are visible. This article unpacks choosing the right forecast level and the common interpretation trap to avoid.

Practitioner lens

Treat judgment around choosing the right forecast level as a measurable input. Store the statistical forecast, human adjustment and eventual outcome separately so their contributions can be reviewed.

First experiment

Draw the series before fitting a model; mark missing periods, stockouts, promotions and calendar changes.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.