The role of a naive baseline

A forecast is not a promise; it is an input to a choice. This primer uses the role of a naive baseline to make that distinction concrete.

Practitioner lens

Use a simple baseline when learning the role of a naive baseline. It makes model value visible and can expose a data issue that would otherwise be mistaken for algorithmic improvement.

First experiment

Choose a horizon and aggregation level that match the decision, then evaluate a simple baseline first.

This is an original educational brief. It is a starting point for discussion, not a claim that one technique fits every supply chain.